By: Mary Martin ’28
The Assad Regime, who had held control over Syria for 24 years, was ousted in December of 2024 opening the nation up to instability, and a potential power grab from ISIS. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army captured much of Aleppo in November, and by December held control of numerous towns and cities. Their victory over the Assad regime came shortly after. This offensive was part of the ongoing Syrian civil war, a conflict that started nearly 14 years ago. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, a former Al-Qaeda rebel group, currently holds control. They have tried to play down their extremist history, with a focus on building a civilian government, but it is hard to forget their years of suicide attacks against government agents. (1)
HTS’ failure to prevent sectarian violence reflects their instability, and has resulted in the death of hundreds of civilians this March. Ahmed al-Shaara, Syria’s current transitional president, has called for the armed groups that took down Assad’s regime to unite into a national army. However, the violence in Northern Syria indicates that is far off. On March 6 insurgents from the late Assad regime attacked government forces, prompting a mobilization of military forces. The mobilized forces traveled throughout the Tartus and Latakia Provinces with the goal of killing suspected insurgents, but instead shelled residential neighborhoods, burned and looted homes, and killed marginalized Shia civilians. The military group that carried out these actions were affiliated with the new government, but not a part of it. These incidents are an apparent marker of the new regime’s inability to control its forces, putting it even farther off from uniting its military actors behind a strong banner. (2)
The United States enactment of new policies could further impact this instability. On September 6, 2024, the United States and Iraq agreed on a withdrawal of the US-led “Global Coalition Against Daesh” from both Syria and Iraq. This would institute the withdrawal of troops from Iraq by September 2025, and the remainder leaving by the end of 2026. (3)
On top of this, Trump’s cuts to foreign aid have caused major security lapses in humanitarian camps attempting to repatriate former Islamic State members. Al-Hol and its smaller compatriot Roj have undergone significant funding cuts, and the quarterly report on ISIS for Congress warns us of growing instability within the camp. It reports that the pause in funding has led to looting, protests, and increased attempts of escape. Not only is the lack of funding a security threat, but a humanitarian issue as well, with the camp lacking money for medical support. This puts 40,000 ISIS affiliated individuals at risk, creating a hot-bed for insurgency, and potential escape. (4)
US intelligence officials in March said that the Islamic State would try to exploit the current weakness of the post-Assad government and free prisoners. Trump’s cuts make the perfect environment for such. And, this is all happening at a time in which the Islamic State is gaining strength. While the group is nowhere near its former glory, the Pentagon warned of attacks doubling in 2024- and they were right. The group claimed 121 attacks in 2023, but by 2024 claimed 294 showing a stark 240% increase. This is made even more alarming with the fact that the IS, in Syria and Iraq, does not claim all their attacks. Charles Lister, senior fellow and director of the Syria and counterterrorism programs at the Middle East Institute, estimates that they conducted nearly 700 attacks last year. These numbers show a dramatic increase in power, and act as a clear representation of their growing strength. (5)(6)
The Islamic State is currently gaining more power than it has had in years, making the stability of Syria crucial for counter-terrorism efforts. Syria is particularly vulnerable due to the withdrawal of US funding and its unstable, emerging, government. Its current environment provides an ideal setting for the Islamic State to seize power. The United States should refrain from withdrawing Syrian troops and funding, or else we could be at risk of propagating and even boosting the Islamic State.
Footnotes:
1.Yee, Vivian, et al. “Who Are HTS, the Rebels Leading the Syria Offensive?” The New York Times, 2 Dec. 2024, www.nytimes.com/2024/12/02/world/middleeast/syria-rebels-hts-who-what.html.
2.Hubbard, Ben. “Syria’s Struggle to Unify Military Was Evident in Outburst of Violence .” The New York Times, 17 Mar. 2025, www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/world/middleeast/syria-military-assad.html.
3.Zelin , Aaron . “Remaining, Waiting for Expansion (Again): The Islamic State’s Operations in Iraq and Syria.” Hudson Institute, 5 Dec. 2024, www.hudson.org/international-organizations/remaining-waiting-expansion-again-islamic-states-operations-iraq-syria#5. Accessed 12 May 2025.
4.Demirjian, Karoun. “U.S. Aid Cutbacks Hurt Efforts to Repatriate Former Islamic State Residents.” The New York Times, 1 May 2025, www.nytimes.com/2025/05/01/us/politics/usaid-isis-trump.html?searchResultPosition=21.
5.Lister, Charles. “Opinion | the Fall of Al-Assad Increases the Risk of an ISIS Resurgence in Syria.” The New York Times, 15 Dec. 2024, www.nytimes.com/2024/12/15/opinion/al-assad-syria-isis.html.
6.Rubin, Alissa J, and Eric Schmitt. “Islamic State Regains Strength in Syria.” The New York Times, 9 Apr. 2025, www.nytimes.com/2025/04/09/world/middleeast/syria-isis-prisoners.html.
Bibliography:
Demirjian, Karoun. “U.S. Aid Cutbacks Hurt Efforts to Repatriate Former Islamic State Residents.” The New York Times, 1 May 2025, www.nytimes.com/2025/05/01/us/politics/usaid-isis-trump.html?searchResultPosition=21.
Hubbard, Ben. “Syria’s Struggle to Unify Military Was Evident in Outburst of Violence .” The New York Times, 17 Mar. 2025, www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/world/middleeast/syria-military-assad.html.
Lister, Charles. “Opinion | the Fall of Al-Assad Increases the Risk of an ISIS Resurgence in Syria.” The New York Times, 15 Dec. 2024, www.nytimes.com/2024/12/15/opinion/al-assad-syria-isis.html.
Rubin, Alissa J, and Eric Schmitt. “Islamic State Regains Strength in Syria.” The New York Times, 9 Apr. 2025, www.nytimes.com/2025/04/09/world/middleeast/syria-isis-prisoners.html.
Yee, Vivian, et al. “Who Are HTS, the Rebels Leading the Syria Offensive?” The New York Times, 2 Dec. 2024, www.nytimes.com/2024/12/02/world/middleeast/syria-rebels-hts-who-what.html.
Zelin , Aaron . “Remaining, Waiting for Expansion (Again): The Islamic State’s Operations in Iraq and Syria.” Hudson Institute, 5 Dec. 2024, www.hudson.org/international-organizations/remaining-waiting-expansion-again-islamic-states-operations-iraq-syria#5. Accessed 12 May 2025.
